OCTOBER 12, 2022 – A new Clout survey of likely voters statewide in Oregon shows Republican Christine Drazan pulling away from Democrat Tina Kotek, while independent candidate Betsy Johnson is fading fast.

The survey, conducted October 8-9, 2022, also shows Republicans leading slightly over Democrats in a generic ballot question.

The new poll shows Drazan winning 44% support, compared to 38% support for Kotek. Johnson wins just 11% support, down precipitously from 16% just three weeks ago. Drazan has gained five points in the last three weeks since our last survey, and Kotek has moved up three points as voters defect from Johnson and undecided voters begin to make up their minds.

Drazan’s support among her political base of Republican voters remains very strong, as she wins 88% support in this latest poll. This mirrors her support in other, earlier polls. She also holds a commanding lead among political independent voters across Oregon, winning 48% of the non-aligned vote. Drazan also wins 10% support among Democratic Party voters.

Kotek wins 74% support among her fellow Democrats, and she wins 23% support from independent voters. Both Kotek and Drazan have increased their share of support among political independents in Oregon as Betsy Johnson has faltered.

Johnson, whose poll numbers have been on a steady slide over the past two months, heads into the final month of the campaign with nowhere to turn to regain political support. She wins just 19% support among what was supposed to be her base – independent voters – and she wins just 10% of Democratic Party voter support and only 7% support from Republican voters. The survey supports the idea that Johnson has no way left to win this race, as voters considered her and then left her behind.

The survey also shows that 76% of Oregon voters have made up their minds for sure and do not plan to change their vote for Governor.

The poll included telephone interviews with 842 likely voter respondents in both landline and mobile phone households across the state. It carries a margin of error of +/-3.38 percentage points. The survey topline report is linked here below.

OR – Statewide Poll Topline Report 10-10-2022

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