Polling News

October 19, 2016

Poll: Trump Holds Narrow Lead Over Clinton in Georgia

OCTOBER 19, 2016 – A new ZPolitics/Clout Research survey shows the race for President in Georgia very close, with Republican Donald Trump leading Democrat Hillary Clinton by a three-point margin, 46% to 43%. The press release from ZPolitics.com is here:

A new poll conducted exclusively for zpolitics has confirmed that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is staying ahead in Georgia, though his lead over Hillary Clinton is a narrow one.

Three weeks out from the November general election, a zpolitics / Clout Research survey confirmed that Georgia could indeed be a battleground state in the presidential election, as Donald Trump is winning by only three points. While he received 46 percent support, 43 percent of Georgians sided with Hillary.

Libertarian Gary Johnson was included in the poll, though his presence was a non-starter. He only garnered 2 percent support from respondents.

Clout pollster Fritz Wenzel told zpolitics that Trump is defying the norm in Georgia, and credits Hillary Clinton’s email scandals with giving the GOP candidate an edge.

“The so-called Gender Gap, which rages in other parts of the country, is not evident here, the survey shows,” Wenzel said. “Elsewhere, Clinton tends to enjoy a double-digit lead among women and typically trails Trump by double-digits among men. But here in Georgia, Trump actually leads among women, 46 percent to 42 percent, while maintaining a 1 point edge among men. This is no doubt in part because of the whip-saw allegations and counter-charges surrounding the 11 year-old Trump audio tape discussing women, and the WikiLeaks revelations from inside the Clinton campaign regarding her team’s opinions of evangelicals, Catholics, and others.”

The poll went even further, asking Trump-leaning respondents if recent stories- like that infamous lewd audio- would make them less likely to vote for the GOP nominee. Wenzel said that the news hasn’t damaged Trump with his base.

“The survey shows that 41% of Trump supporters couldn’t care less about the recent news reports about him, and another 58% of Trump supporters actually were more likely to vote for him in the wake of the reports,” Wenzel said. “Whether this is because they believe the media is unfairly attacking him or whether they accept his explanations and apology doesn’t matter – what matters is his political base in Georgia is sticking with him through thick and thin, and it doesn’t get much thinner than this.”

Meanwhile, Republican and Democrat voters both agree that the Supreme Court is a top priority in the election. 74 percent of voters say that they will cast their ballot with the high court in mind, while 60 percent of Democrats said they would do the same.

In Georgia, that could be an extra factor that motivates GOP voters to the polls, though a Trump win could not at all be considered a safe bet.

“Anything can happen in the final weeks of a campaign, but given that Trump is leading after two very, very bad weeks, his edge, however small, in this new survey has to be considered an important baseline heading into the final push,” Wenzel said. “But this year, anything can happen,” 

The survey, which ran between October 15-18, polled 627 likely general election voters from across Georgia.