INDIANA GOP PRIMARY A DEAD HEAT HEADING INTO FINAL DAYS
(poll methodology and topline report below)
The survey of likely GOP voters statewide in Indiana shows a statistical toss-up for the Republican Party nomination for President between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, with Trump holding a 37% to 35% edge. John Kasich wins the support of 16% of voters, with 11% saying they are yet unsure for whom they will vote.
Trump wins among moderate primary voters with 39%, compared to 37% for Kasich and 18% for Cruz. Among those who consider themselves establishment conservatives – which comprised 55% of the poll sample – Trump wins 36% support and Cruz won 34% support. Among those who self-identified as supporting the ideals of the TEA Party movement, Cruz leads Trump by a 51% to 39% margin. TEA Partiers made up 25% of the poll sample.
“Our polling shows this race is a complete toss-up. After the Trump wins Tuesday in the Northeast, some have said this race for the nomination is over, but the voters of Indiana clearly have a different opinion,” said Pollster Fritz Wenzel. “Our survey shows this race will very likely come down to the final day and the final vote.”
The poll shows a clear gender gap, as Trump leads Cruz by a 42% to 29% margin among men, but Cruz leads Trump among women, 42% to 32%. Kasich won 16% among both men and women.
Asked if they would vote for Donald Trump in the November General Election if he were the GOP nominee, just 65% of Republicans say they would support him. Another 6% say they would vote for the Democratic Party nominee, while 6% say they would vote for a minor party candidate, and 3% say they simply would not vote in that race. One in five voters – 19% – say they are not sure what they would do if he is the nominee.
Two out of every three GOP voters – 67% – say they were optimistic the Republican candidate would win the presidency in November, while 34% say they were doubtful of success in the General Election. Among the “very optimistic” voters, Trump wins 64% support, while Kasich wins 56% among the “very doubtful” GOP voters. Cruz wins among voters in the middle of the spectrum on this question.
The voters are split right down the middle on the question of whether the state-by-state presidential nomination process is fair or “rigged by insider political figures,” as 50% agree with each perspective. Not surprisingly, among those who say they believe the system is fair, Cruz won 47% support, while Kasich won 22% and Trump just 17% backing. Among those who believe the system is rigged, Trump won 57% support, compared to 23% for Cruz and 11% for Kasich.
Clout Research is a leading national Republican survey research firm established in 2005 and based in Columbus, Ohio. Using live agents in its call center, it conducted an independent survey telephone survey of likely GOP voters statewide in Indiana in advance of Tuesday’s primary election. The survey was fielded on April 27, 2016, in the immediate aftermath of the Ted Cruz announcement of Carly Fiorina as his running mate. It included 423 respondents and carries a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error of +/- 4.75 percentage points.
The accuracy record of Clout Research, particularly in Republican Primary Election contests, is unmatched in the industry. In 2012 in Indiana, it was the first and only polling company to find incumbent Richard Lugar losing to challenger Richard Mourdock in the Senate race. In Texas, Clout Research was first to find Ted Cruz defeating David Dewhurst, and in Nebraska that same year, Clout was the first to find Deb Fischer heading to victory over heavily favored Jon Bruning in the GOP U.S. Senate primary election. Clout’s success has continued in the years since, including near-perfect tracking of the Virginia Governor’s race that other pollsters missed by double-digits in a state that is notoriously difficult to poll. In addition to its extensive work for clients across the country, it periodically surveys important races around the nation to test voter opinion.