Polling News

July 15, 2016

KS CD1: Incumbent Huelskamp Trails Challenger Marshall

             COLUMBUS, OHIO – 7-14-2016 – A new telephone survey of likely GOP Primary Election Voters in the 1st Congressional District in Kansas shows congressional challenger Roger Marshall with a small but significant lead over incumbent Congressman Tim Huelskamp heading into the last days before the primary election to choose a Republican nominee for Kansas’ First Congressional District. Marshall wins 49% support in the Clout Research poll, compared to 42% for Huelskamp.

            Nine percent said they are yet unsure on the question. Two in three voters said they were firm in their choice for the GOP nomination, while 26% said they were somewhat firm, but might change their minds. Just six percent said they were not at all sure of their choice and were very open to changing their minds before they vote. Overall, this is an electorate whose opinions are somewhat hardened, but not so much so that Huelskamp has no hope for a last minute surge. Congressional incumbents are known to come through in a pinch.

             Marshall leads by six points among men and by 10 points among women, though the poll shows women voters are less certain in their choices than are male voters.

            Marshall leads in both the Topeka and Wichita media markets, but his lead in the Topeka market is much larger – 18 points, compared to a three-point advantage in the larger Wichita media market, which includes a massive swath of western Kansas.

          It conducted a telephone poll of likely GOP Primary voters in Kansas Congressional District 1 July 7-9, 2016 regarding the upcoming election. The survey carries a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error of 3.93 percentage points.