Polling News

March 23, 2016

Clout Research on the Mark in Ohio Presidential Poll!

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Clout Research was on the mark in the recent Ohio Presidential Primary Election, posting one of the surveys closest to the actual outcome. While some national polling organizations were showing the race a dead heat between Kasich and Donald Trump in the closing days, Clout Research found, in a survey conducted about a week before the election, that Kasich held a seven-point lead and had momentum that would see that lead increase in the closing days before the Ohio election.

Clout separated respondents into pools of voters who had already cast ballots (since early voting in Ohio begins about a month before Election Day) and those who were intent on voting but who had not yet cast ballots. Among those who had already voted, Trump actually maintained a small lead, which has been typical of his performance elsewhere. But, among those who had not yet voted, Kasich led by a wide margin, and, overall, Kasich led by 7%.  One could easily extrapolate that Kasich’s lead would expand from seven percent, and it certainly did – he won the state by 11% over Trump when it was all said and done.

This was just the latest in a long string of election polls where Clout Research not only got the correct result, but was very close to the final outcome AND found the trendline that would lead to the final total. In election polling, it is not just the snapshot in time that every survey captures, but the trend that can be discerned. Clout Research is a very skillful polling operation that not only understands the importance of such things, but also has the expertise in survey design to capture such developments and to make the most of them – to the ultimate benefit or its clients.

FW