Polling News

October 27, 2016

CLOUT Poll: Plurality of Oregon Voters Oppose Passage of Measure 97

OCTOBER 27, 2016 – A new Clout Research telephone poll of likely General Election voters shows them leaning toward defeating a statewide tax measure known as Measure 97, or M97.

The recent survey shows 41% of likely voters favor passage of the measure, while 46% would vote against it. Another 13% of the statewide electorate said they are yet unsure about the measure.

Among Democrats statewide, 57% favor passage of the tax measure, while 29% of Democrats oppose it and 34% are unsure. Both Republicans and independent voters are against it, as just 23% of Republicans and 36% of independent voters support it. Among the GOP respondents, 69% said they are against passage of this tax measure.

The measure cuts right along ideological lines, as the more liberal the respondent, the more likely they are to support the measure. Among very liberal Oregon voters, 66% support M97, but only 12% of those who self-identified as “very conservative” support its passage.

Those respondents in households that include a member of a public sector, or government, union strongly supported the measure at a clip of 65% support, but majorities of voters in households that include a private-sector union member opposed the new tax. Among those in trade unions, 53% opposed the measure, while 56% of those with a member of a service sector union in the household opposed M97. A plurality of 47% of those who have no union membership in their household also opposed the measure, while 38% of non-union respondents supported passage of M97.

The Clout survey showed quite a disparity between the genders, as a majority of men opposed the measure, but a plurality of women supported it. Among men, 51% opposed it, while 35% supported it. Among women, 47% supported it, while 40% opposed it.

Intensity of the support and opposition on the measure is interesting. While 29% “strongly favor” passage, 34% “strongly oppose” it. Since undecided voters on the question, this late in the election process, are unlikely to form an intense opinion on the issue, it appears those opposing the tax measure are likely in the driver’s seat on this question. Of course, last-minute campaign developments can always color the outcome on questions like this.

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Clout Research is a leading opinion research company established in 2005 and working nationwide with clients in politics, business, media, government, and the non-profit sectors.  It conducted a survey of Oregonians statewide October 20-21, 2016, regarding political issues. The telephone survey, which included interviews with likely voters in landline and cell phone-only households, included 928 respondents. It carries a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error of +/- 3.22 percentage points.

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