Polling News

November 7, 2016

CLOUT POLL: Oregon Tax Measure 97 Headed to Defeat

NOVEMBER 7, 2016 – Measure 97, the $5 Billion tax increase on the Oregon statewide ballot, appears headed toward defeat by a wide margin in tomorrow’s election, a new Clout Research poll shows.

The survey of 978 likely voters statewide shows 57% have either already voted against it or plan to do so, while 38% support the measure. Another 6% said they were yet unsure about the measure heading into the final days before the election.

The measure is losing by 9 points among those who have already cast ballots as of last Friday, but is trailing by 28 points among those who have not yet voted but who are very likely to do so.

Democrats support the measure, but are overwhelmed by the tidal wave of Republicans and independent voters who oppose it. Among Republicans, 82% oppose the tax hike, while only 15% support it. Among independents, 63% oppose it, while 35% support it.

There is a significant gender gap on this issue, as there is with many on the Oregon ballot this fall. Among men, just 28% support it, while a far greater percentage of women Р46% Рsupport it. Two out of every three men oppose it and 48% of women oppose the measure, which would increase the corporate minimum tax on companies when sales exceed $25 million. The revenue would be earmarked for education, healthcare, and senior services, but opponents have said the tax would be passed on to consumers and would amount to a back-door sales tax. Oregon currently is one of two states in the nation without a state sales tax.